A project between the Met Office and National Grid’s Electricity System Operator (ESO) energy forecasting team has resulted in improvements to electricity demand forecasting.
Announced on 5 July, the project looked to enhance the accuracy of solar radiation forecasts provided by the Met Office to industry.
Funded by the Network Innovation Allowance (NIA) and administered by Ofgem, it looks to balance supply and demand in real time, where National Grid ESO sought to produce a national demand forecast.
Through the project, the switch to blended forecasts delivered an improvement of between 5% and 10% in solar radiation forecast mean absolute error. The statistical processing efforts also added further improvements between 1% and 2%. This resulted in more accurate demand forecasting, with improvements of between 5% and 9% for the in-day and day-ahead national demand forecasts over the last financial year.